The bad news is that Arsenal’s campaign is set to end trophyless for a fifth year running; the good news is that there are only three games left until it’s over.
Mikel Arteta’s side had the chance to make it to only the second Champions League final in the club’s history on Wednesday night, but despite their fast start, they couldn’t get over the line.
Perhaps things would have been a little different if Kai Havertz had been fit and leading the line; as for all the criticism he gets, the German remains the club’s top scorer this season, even though he hasn’t played since early February.
However, even though he’s not been too bad when fit this season, he may well find his minutes reduced next year, as, based on reports, the club are looking at a striker who might just be an upgrade.
Arsenal's striker search
With the striker position being such a clear area to address, Arsenal have been linked with a plethora of incredible strikers in recent months, such as Jonathan David and Viktor Gyokeres.
Transfer Focus
Mega money deals, controversial moves and big-name flops. This is the home of transfer news and opinion across Football FanCast.
The former has scored 25 goals and provided 12 assists in 47 games this season, and best of all would be available for free, as his contract expires at the end of the campaign.
Gyokeres, on the other hand, could cost a whopping £70m, although as he’s managed to score a staggering 52 goals and provide 12 assists in 49 games for Sporting CP, that may well be a fair price.
However, if Arteta and Co want to spend more money on other positions in the team, they might opt for a cheaper but still effective striker to come in, which would explain the interest in Evann Guessand.
According to a recent report from Caught Offside, Arsenal are one of several sides interested in signing the French forward.
Alongside the Gunners, the report has revealed that West Ham United, Aston Villa and Newcastle United have sent scouts to watch him in recent games, while other stories have also credited Manchester United with an interest in the 23-year-old.
A potential price is not revealed in the report, but according to other stories from the start of the year, he could be available for around £25m, which would make this potential transfer feel like a no-brainer, especially as he could be an upgrade on Havertz.
How Guessand compares to Havertz
Now, while Guessand is more than capable of playing off the right of a front three, it seems incredibly unlikely that he would ever start there ahead of Saka.
So, were he to join Arsenal in the summer, he’d almost certainly be played down the middle, in turn putting him up against Havertz for game time, but who’s the better player?
Well, when we look at their raw output, it’s incredibly close.
For example, when looking at all competitions, the German has scored 15 goals and provided five assists in 34 games, which comes out to an average of a goal involvement every 1.7 games.
This is marginally better than the Nice ace, as his 12 goals and nine assists in 40 appearances come out to an average of a goal involvement every 1.90 games.
However, when we take a look at their league records, their bread and butter, it’s the Frenchman who comes ahead, with 11 goals and eight assists in 31 appearances to the Aachen-born star’s nine goals and three assists in 21 appearances, coming out to an average of a goal involvement every 1.63 and 1.75 league games respectively.
Interesting, and quite crucially, while there isn’t much to separate them regarding their output, things start to look a lot better for the “unpredictable” 23-year-old, as dubbed by The Athletic’s Alex Barker, when we take a look under the hood, at their underlying numbers.
Non-Penalty G+As
0.67
0.59
Progressive Passes
2.85
2.89
Progressive Carries
3.11
1.67
Goals per Shot
0.19
0.17
Goals per Shot on Target
0.44
0.43
Passing Accuracy
74.0%
78.5%
Expected Assists
0.17
0.08
Key Passes
1.11
0.78
Passes into the Final Third
1.70
1.27
Passes into the Penalty Area
0.96
0.39
Crosses into the Penalty Area
0.15
0.05
Shot-Creating Actions
3.19
2.01
Goal-Creating Actions
0.56
0.15
Successful Take-Ons
1.59
0.44
Ball Recoveries
3.52
1.91
In almost every relevant metric, the Ajaccio-born poacher comes out on top, metrics including, but not limited to, non-penalty goals plus assists, expected assists, progressive carries, goals per shot and shot on target, shot and goal-creating actions, successful take-ons, key passes and more, all per 90.
So, while their output is somewhat similar at the moment, the Nice gem has far better underlying numbers, so it wouldn’t be unrealistic to expect his goal and assist tallies to dramatically improve if he was in a better team.
Ultimately, Guessand is already a great forward, and with his age and the price tag, signing him this summer feels like a no-brainer for Arsenal, even if it could be bad news for Havertz’s future game time.
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